It goes without saying Vladomir Putin suddenly announcing 300,000 reservists will be deployed to Ukraine is an admission things are not going well for the Russian Military at all. It’s believed Russia has lost over 100,000 soldiers to death, injury, capture or desertion since the conflict began on February 24 of this year.
Responding to Putin’s announcement, Ukraine’s Volodomir Zelensky offered a deal directly to Russian and its military: If you don’t want to die or get hurt, surrender peacefully, flee or desert. Within hours of Putin’s announcement, protests have erupted across the country.
There has also been a mass exodus of young men of military age in Russia fleeing the country, most crossing into Kazakhstan or Finland. Oddly, the Russian government is doing nothing to keep people from leaving the country. Between that, nationwide protests and now dissent among Russia’s top brass, Putin’s got a LOT of problems going on.
We probably won’t hear about it anytime soon but I have little doubt U.S. Intelligence and the Department of Defense is trying to figure out who of their Russian counterparts might be willing to openly turn on Putin if they don’t know already. Putin deciding he wants to give direct orders to Russian generals in Ukraine is just a really bad idea and more so given it’s split the military as soon as it was announced. Well, that and Ukraine’s basically a killing field for the Russian military.
Putin’s betting everything on the coming winter and the West’s desire for lower gas prices among other things. Although he insists he’s not posturing with his talk of using nukes, he knows even if he test-launches a ballistic missle that would force NATO and the U.S. to enter the conflict militarily. It’s just a question of weather or not Putin is willing to risk that.
In order for a popular uprising to succeed, you need a combination of things to work in your favor. Not just nationwide protests. You also need dissent at the top among government officials in support of regime change. The problem here is as has been reported, anyone who expresses even the slightest bit of dissent turns up dead not long after. As a reminder, Alexei Navalny revealed in his docudrama Russia employs state-sponored assassinations on its own people both domestically and internationally.
A third important element is at least some military leaders being willing to break from the current regime. Officials in Western Europe and the U.S. are cautiously optimistic there are cracks forming between Putin and his military commanders now. The conflict in Ukraine is not only unpopular in Russia but none of its allies are willing or able to provide direct military assistance.
This is to say nothing of the nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine who never returned. The Russian Military knows at this point, Ukraine’s an unwinnable conflict. More so now that Ukraine won the info war and morale within the Russian Military is now basically nonexistent.
On that note. One thing that would be good for Ukraine and its allies but bad for Putin is if it’s not already happening, Russian generals and other Russian military commanders could start talking to Ukraine and its allies on their own. I do feel like Ukranian, U.S. and UK Intelligence knows much more about what’s going on within the Russian military than they’re willing to let on publicly. The speed at which Ukraine has recently reclaimed territory with so little resistance is the biggest indicator.
Putin is riding on the coming winter believing it will put pressure on Ukraine’s gas-dependant allies. He’s also waiting for winter to set in so he can annex the two Russian-aligned regions into Russia. That’s assuming the Ukrainian Military hasn’t retaken them by then. Zelensky said he wants to retake Crimea but knowing Russia is working to annex the Donbas and Luhansk regions, it makes the most sense to focus on those two regions first as Ukraine would also be able to disrupt and likely cut Russia’s overland supply line to Crimea at the same time. You do that, Russian forces on the Crimean Penninsula are basically sitting ducks.
Until Putin is no longer running Russia, the conflict in Ukraine will for sure continue for a few more years. From how it looks, Putin’s time is fast running out. It’s just a matter of time at this point.
Alarm bells have been sounding since the weekend as U.S., Ukranian and European Intelligences now believe Putin is not bluffing this time in regards to a willingness and desire to use nukes on Ukraine. It is the proverbial nightmare scenario the world was mindful of ever since the conflict first began back in February.
Do not be surprised if you suddenly start to hear of U.S. and NATO forces preparing to move into Ukraine sooner than later. The U.S. and NATO repeatedly made it clear to Putin: Nuke Ukraine and there will be a heavy price to pay. CNN Military analyst James “Spider Marks” stated without hesitation the U.S. Military would completely annihilate the Russian military within 96 hours of deployment. That’s assuming most Russian soldiers don’t just surrender willingly once news breaks the U.S. Military is coming.
The U.S. Military alone would be able to kick Russia out of Crimea and eastern Ukraine pretty easily–and quickly. Putin knows that and it’s probably why he now wants to use Nukes for real. He would use them defensively and likely target Kyiv and other targets within Ukraine. I wouldn’t put it past Putin to nuke Chernobyl or Zaporyzhia knowing it would force NATO to give one of those nuclear power plants their full attention. We’ll have to wait and see as things are sure to get real dangerous real soon.
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