It’s important to point out this is actually Volodymyr Zelensky’s third visit to Washington. His first visit was back in 2020 when Trump was president. His second visit was back in September 2021 during which he met with Biden almost 18 months before the conflict in Ukraine began.
10 months after said conflict began, Ukraine has been doing far better than the entire world anticipated early on. Things are at a bit of a stalemate right now. At this point, The Ukranian Military has reclaimed most of the territory occupied by Russia and Zelensky has his sights on reclaiming Crimea. Russia still holds the numbers advantage and Putin has conscripted 300,000 reservists to go to Ukraine.
Despite his best efforts, Putin has failed to break both Ukraine’s morale and its resolve. It’s probably fair to say at this point Ukrainians are prepared to fight to the last if need be but that likely won’t be necessary. Putin hoped between Trump and the Republican Party, America was divided enough politically for him to take at least half of Ukraine with little resistance as he did with Crimea. What both he and and the world–including U.S. intelligence–never accounted for was the fact Ukranians were clearly willing to fight for their country and by extension their very survival.
In his address to Congress and by extension the world Wednesday evening, Zelensky reminded everyone freedom isn’t free. His visit to Washington was primarily to personally request more aid from the U.S. Zelensky is well aware that with the new Congress next month, it will likely be much harder for him to get aid from the U.S. in the coming months. He also took a bit of a swipe at Putin’s friends in the GOP in his address by basically saying the help is “an investment, not a donation or charity”.
By now you’re probably thinking “Wait a minute. What about Europe? Why aren’t they helping more?” The media could do a much better job on this as a whole but as until 10 months ago, they bought most of their crude oil and natural gas for the winter from Russia. It also didn’t help OPEC decided to side with Russia a few months back, pissing off the U.S. at the same time.
That aside, it’s also true Europe is trying to avoid openly supporting Ukraine because they don’t want to trigger a third World War in Europe. This is also why the world was on edge after a stray missile incident on the Polish boarder two months ago. So far, Russia has been very careful about bombing targets too close to Poland because it will draw NATO into the conflict.
These winter months are a real test as not only will Ukranian forces be battling Russia but the extreme cold as well. As a reminder, Russia has also been bombing civilian infrastructure in Kyiv all this time on a daily basis. It’s one thing for Ukraine to be fighting the second most powerful military in the world. It’s another thing to be doing that knowing said military is also bombing your country’s cities and towns daily almost unchecked.
That brings me back to the 300,000 reservists Putin is looking to deploy to Ukraine sooner than later. The Russian Military is known to be good at doing just two things: Carpet bombing and overwhelming opposing forces with large numbers. Ukraine basically exposed the Russian Military as a paper tiger more or less. Powerful on paper but in practice, it’s a different story.
As a reminder, the Ukranian Military has killed over 150,000 Russian soldiers including over 15,000 within the first first month. This is to say nothing of over a million Russian men who’ve fled the country since the conflict began to evade being drafted. Russia quickly turned to conscripting prisoners and hiring mercenaries so…yeah.
After months of saying “not right now”, the U.S. has now agreed to give Ukraine one Patriot Missile system. It’s expected to arrive in Ukraine likely in the next few months. The reasons the U.S. resisted doing this much sooner are two. One is obviously, it’s VERY expensive. It’s around $20 to $40 Million per unit which you can see above: The mobile radar, radar truck and missile launcher as well as $4 Million per missile. It’s a mobile unit as you can see and that’s what makes it so valuable to the U.S., NATO, etc.
The other reason is of course, specialized training is needed to operate these things. The U.S. trained some Ukranian soldiers on using the Stinger Missile Launcher and other weapons systems earlier this year. Those soldiers could then train other Ukranian soldiers when they returned. Every NATO member nation has some of these so it shouldn’t be a problem to find someone willing to train Ukranian soldiers on using them.
Russian officials have said the Patriot Defense System would be a priority target as soon as it’s deployed. Of course, they are well aware that since it’s a mobile defense system, it could be long gone from where their surveilance drones spot it before they could target it for bombing.
It’s worth pointing out Ukraine did receive some defensive anti-air missile systems from Israel several months back. That is the only reason Kyiv hasn’t been reduced to rubble by now. During his address to Congress and before that during his joint press conference with President Biden, Zelensky didn’t mince words: He’ll be asking for even more stuff for the foreseeable future.
…Emphasis on stuff.
From the very beginning, Zelensky has made one thing clear: Ukraine can, will and wants to fight its own battles. All they’re asking for are weapons, equipment and anything else necessary to defend themselves. This is to say nothing of aid that will be needed after the conflict is over to help rebuild.
Some high-profile Podcast hosts have started to point this out–and I eluded to this myself earlier–Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is directly tied to the political discourse in the U.S. since at least 2012. This iconic photo of President Obama looking down at Putin, who is avoiding his gaze made it clear who was asserting their country’s dominance in that moment.
Putin’s contempt toward Obama was not exactly a secret and he was all too happy to help Trump, Republicans and Christian Fundamentalists destabilize America over the 10 years that followed. In Putin’s mind, how the U.S. goes the rest of the Western World will follow. Obama knew Putin was openly trying to provoke the U.S. when Russia annexed the Crimean Penninsula.
That brings me to the now imfamous closed-door meeting in Helsinki between Trump and Putin. Based on what we know about the fact Trump revered Putin, we didn’t realize it then but Trump was a Russian asset for all intents and purposes. Conventional wisdom makes it clear at the very least Putin likely had something on Trump to tell the world he “knows for a fact Russia was not involved in the 2016 election”. More so given Trump threw the U.S. Intelligence community under the bus in the same sentance.
When Biden met with Putin last year, everyone knew it would be a reset of relations between the two countries. At the time, Putin was laying the groundwork for the invasion to come this past February. Putin has done everything he could both then and since to get an overreaction from not just the U.S. but Western Europe. Everyone refused to bite though.
When the conflict began, Western Europe turned to the U.S. for guidance. One of the first things Biden made clear is unless attacked by Russia, no NATO troops would go to Ukraine. Just 10 or 20 years ago, the missile incident inside Poland’s side of the boarder with Ukraine from late last month probably would have triggered a military response from NATO against Russia.
What happened instead was the incident were investigated and it was determined Russia was not directly responsible for the fatal missile-related blast. Ukraine was shooting down Russian artillery and there was a bit of a blowback that hit a truck on the Polish side of the boarder. One person was killed and two others were injured.
Two months ago, Time Magazine named Volodymyr Zelensky and the people of Ukraine its 2022 Person Of The Year. It’s a well-earned honor to say the least all things considered. As a reminder, the U.S. offered to get him and his family out of Ukraine when the conflict first began. He not only declined but asked for weapons instead. Everyone expected him to be dead within 72 hours and Ukraine to be taken over by Russia.
Fast forward to his address to U.S. Congress: “Ukraine is alive and kicking”.
The first few days of the conflict were especially harrowing for the wartime president. The satellite phone given to him by the U.S. before the American Embassy evacuated from Ukraine allowed U.S. Officials to track Zelensky’s movements in real time. That was also how the world knew for sure that he was alive in those first few weeks.
Zelensky gave press interviews from within hardened underground bunkers while Kyiv was under siege. He would change locations every 48 to 72 hours at night to keep ahead of Russian operatives he knew were actively hunting him. Sometimes when it was safe enough, Zelensky would upload videos of himself outside at night to social media just to let the world know he was still alive. Well, that and disprove the disinformation Russia was aggressively spreading online claiming he had been killed in a bombing run and they were looking for his body.
Zelensky’s refusal to leave the country in those early days galvanized his people and inspired the world. Meanwhile, morale in the Russian military is virtually non-existent. New whispers of a possible coup being planned from within the Russian Military have renewed in recent weeks. The media isn’t paying attention but it’s a hot topic among hackers and international intelligence agencies. Zelensky actually eluded to this during his speech to Congress when he said the people of Russia needs to hold the Kremlin responsible for what it is doing to its people.
On that note. Most Ukrainians understand most Russians were brainwashed by government propaganda. Those who have relatives on the Crimean penninsula have been told by their kin an alternate reality so they know all too well they’re fighting both a physical war AND an information war. That doesn’t mean the Ukranians don’t hate–scratch that, despise–Putin and the Russian Military for all the death and destruction.
It’s worth pointing out Zelensky has reiterated he wants to liberate not just the four eastern regions Russia annexed but Crimea as well. That’s the part that has Russians near the boarder with Ukraine especially nervous. More so given the Ukranian military has launched some covery strikes on military targets in Russia since the Spring. It’s widely believed in both Ukraine and Russia it’s a matter of when, not if Ukraine launches a major offensive to retake eastern Ukraine.
From what I was able to piece together from info I found online, apparently the sepratists in Eastern Ukraine were hoping to literally cut the country in two. Russia wanted a land corridor to Crimea and likely Moldova where they also have a military presence doing similar things. The sepratists wanted the Russians’ help fighting the Ukranian military and that’s where they messed up. 10 months later, the world saw the Russian military isn’t as scary as everyone thought it was.
Next year is sure to be real interesting to say the least.
Ukraine has become a killing field for the Russian Military. It’s why so far over 1 Million Russian men have fled the country to avoid being drafted. Yes, Putin has conscripted 300,000 men to be deployed to Ukraine anytime now but it’s highly unlikely they will do any better.
Since carpet bombing the country all year didn’t break morale, at this point the Russian Military is likely hoping to overwhelm the Ukranian Military with superior numbers. What’s very likely is many of those reservists will desert at the first opportunity. Most of them are not willing to throw away their lives for nothing. Sure, there’ll be some seeking revenge for a dead or wounded friend or family member but the overwhelming majority will desert at the first opportunity.
Some Russian soldiers have actually switched sides and have joined Ukraine’s Foreign Legion. This is to say nothing of the tens of thousands who’ve already fled to Western Europe or the Middle East. I do think it’s a matter of when, not if the Russian Military implodes. Weather that leads to a military coup against Putin or not we’ll have to wait and see. What I can say for sure is Putin’s days in power are numbered.
I do not think Zelensky has any interest in escalating the conflict with Russia if it can be helped. At the same time he is aware that in order to stop a lot of the long-range artillery strikes, he may have to direct Ukranian forces to cross into Russia. That could be interesting if it happens.
While Belarus is not aiding Russia militarily, it is being used as a staging ground and a training ground for the Russian Military. The Belarusian Parilament is refusing to allow its military to aid Putin in his conflict with Ukraine and that is what’s giving Ukraine a fighting chance. That’s unlikely to change and more so after word got out Belarus’ president/despot had apparently been planning to arrange for Russia to annex the country. It’s caused a bit of public blowback in Belarus and it’s looking like there will be a regime change at some point.
Will the conflict in Ukraine end in 2023? Hopefully but as the saying goes, all we can do is wait and see.
I could see some of the fallout from the conflict causing Russia to split up though.
Russia is by area the largest country in the world. It spans 8 time zones and touches two oceans. Most of its population is in the western half of the country though. The majority of the northern and center of country is uninhabitable due to the extreme cold. There have been renewed efforts to develop the east coast and the southernmost portions of the country along the country’s boarders with China, Mongolia and Kazakhstan in particular.
I’ve been hearing whispers for almost 20 years Siberia wants to split off from Russia and become an independent country. That would split the country in two. There’s also been talk of unresst in the Volga and Ural regions of Russia in particular.
This is obviously nothing more than speculation but a political and regional breakup of Russia seems inevitable at this point.
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