Iowa Caucus Fallout, Democratic candidate Dean Philips may actually have a chance and The Clock is Ticking

The political eyes of America were on Iowa Monday but already they are shifting to New Hampshire for next week.

Chris Christie dropped out a few days before 110,000 Iowans voted in the GOP Primary–unsurprisingly, Trump won–while two others dropped out after the Iowa Caucus. That leaves Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis left in the running. Of course, Trump will officially become the nominee by March 19.

I want to back up and just make sure people understand something: Iowa is a state with a population of a little more than 3 million people. Of them, only 110,000 of the Iowa’s Republican voters–about 4% of registered voters in the entire state overall–actually voted. Out of that 110,000, 108,000 voted for Trump. For context, Iowa has 752,000 registered Republican voters. As a reminder, there was heavy snowfall the day before and below freezing temperatures the day of. Yet the media and the GOP are separately making it sound like most of those 752,000 registered Republican voters voted which is not true. The little details matter for posterity’s sake.

I said this on Xitter but if that trend continues, the November election will have the lowest voter turnout for a Presidential Election in U.S. History. THAT is what the GOP and Trump are riding on. They are hoping enough people who would not vote for Trump stay home or don’t vote for Biden. It’s their ONLY hope this time actually and after this past October–I refer to the conflict in Israel–it’s a viable strategy.

A combination of foreign and domestic threats are working hard to keep Biden from getting a second term. Honestly, people need to start preparing themselves–and I’m being serious when I say this–for the very real liklihood Trump gets back in the White House or worse, Trump is incapacitated before the November election. I’ll speak more to that in a bit though.

 

For those who might not know or remember, Biden does have a Democratic challenger still in the running: Soon to be former Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips. Before launching his presidental bid, Philips announced he will not be running for reelection in Congress. Meaning he is all-in with his presidental campaign.

Philips has been having an even tougher time than Bernie Sanders did near the end of his campaign in 2016. Not only is the DNC blackballing him but a few states have already decided not to have him on the ballot. This is to say nothing of the media basically pretending he’s not still in the running for the Democratic nomination.

I’ll be blunt: The longer Philips stays in, the greater the chances more people notice him and start considering him. Unfortunately for those like myself who would love to vote for someone other than Biden–and obviously not Trump)–Philips is a very flawed candidate. I mean in terms of policy and personality.

He recently agreed to remove all mentions of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) from his campaign’s website in exchange for a $1 Million donation from hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman. On that note. It’s worth noting all the tech bros who were initially backing Vivek Ramaswamy switched to Philips as soon as Ramaswamy dropped out. Ramaswamy himself endorsed Trump after dropping out to the surprise of no one on that note.

On a related note. Philips has also talked about the token support he has been getting from Trump. If this sounds familiar, it was the same with RFK Jr. befeore he quietly dropped out last year (I am aware RFK Jr. is now trying to run as a third party candidate). In other words yes, Philips is yet another Trump surrogate hoping to play spoiler to Biden. The problem is unlike Sanders in 2016, Philips is not a real threat to Biden. And he knows it.

…Or is he?

Andrew Yang, co-founder of the Forward Party seems to think so. Yang recently endorsed Philips and has been working to help Philips get more public exposure. From what I’ve seen, Yang is clearly all-in on Philips and is willing to overlook his flaws. It’s a huge gamble on Yang’s part as although the Foward Party’s influence is rising nationwide, the party announced in advance they will not be fielding any candidates in the 2024 presidential election. It doesn’t mean they can’t back an existing candidate though.

While Yang IS right to say no one wants Biden vs. Trump II, he’s betting on a flawed horse that has no real shot at beating Biden head-on. It won’t even be close. Philips having friendly ties to Trump is what makes him so suspect to me and at the end of the day, I can’t trust Philips.

I can only hope Yang endorsing Philips doesn’t cause lasting damage for the Forward Party when they eventually start fielding candidates at the state and federal levels. At the very least Yang endorsing and stumping for Phillips will for sure hurt him politically.

I am aware Philips is starting to gain momentum with the new TV ads and more openly on social media. That still doesn’t change the fact he’s not a legit threat to Biden like Sanders was to Hillary in 2016. Being anti-incumbent alone is not enough to be taken seriously. It also doesn’t help to not be running a serious, forward-thinking campaign either.

 

To provide a bit of historical context, the Democratic Party’s hatred toward not just third party candidates but Democratic challengers to the incumbent Democratic president can be traced back to Edward Kennedy’s failed presidental bid in 1980. Who was president in 1980? Jimmy Carter, the last Democratic president who failed to get re-elected (Lyndon B. Johnson didn’t seek a second term so he doesn’t count).

By the time Carter got past Ted Kennedy and secured the Democratic nomination, he had been severely weakened politically. Not just from Kennedy but various national and international crisises that were happening at the time. Most imfamously the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis during the election. It was revealed two years ago Republican members of Congress urged Iran not to negotiate with the Carter Administration. Why? To help Ronald Reagan get elected. It worked and was the deciding factor in Carter losing to Reagan.

The Democratic Party blamed Kennedy for Carter losing to Reagan though he knew he could never run for president ever again. Kennedy became a Senator a few years later and served until his death in 2009. The year before he died, Kennedy endorsed the man he likely viewed as his protege: Barack Obama, who would go on to become the 44th President of the United States in 2008.

Unfortunately, the only thing the Democrats seemed to have learned from what happened 44 years ago is “Don’t allow ANYONE from within to challenge the preferred party nominee”. That brings me to 2016 and the reason I am no longer a Democrat myself. The Democratic Party decided backing a politically flawed and politically divisive candidate who had no real shot at beating whoever came out of the Republican Party–I’m referring to Hillary Clinton–was better than endorsing a longtime Independent who not only chose to run for the Democratic nomination–Bernie Sanders–but kept his word and did not run as a third party candidate even though statistically, he actually would have won the White House if he had did so.

It is a fact MANY Republicans and Independents who did not like Trump in 2016 repeatedly told the world in advance they would be willing to vote for Bernie Sanders if he got the Democratic nomination–most potentially voting for a Democrat for the first time in their lives–OR ran as a third party because they believed Sanders could do what they knew neither Hillary or Trump could do and actually unite the country.

What happened instead?

Many of them either voted for Trump, voted for a third party candidate or stayed home largely in protest of the Democratic Party’s insistence on pushing Hillary Clinton and suppressing the majority of voices from within who wanted literally anyone else. Many of Hillary’s supporters to this day continue to insist “Everyone who voted for Trump/Other or didn’t vote for Hillary did it because they’re a mysogynist” and that’s an easy way to convince people to not vote for the next “chosen one”. It also betrays the fact some Dems are not all that different from Trump supporters. It’s why I left the party in 2016 so…yeah.

On that note and before I move on. It is a fact Hillary Clinton was a flawed presidential candidate and her status as a former first lady is only part of the reason why. Right after the 2016 election I said on this blog and another blog that Trump was the president we deserved, not the one we needed. I still feel that way now. Funnily enough, I also predicted in early 2017 Trump would be a 1-term president. I just didn’t know what the breaking point would be at the time.

What no one could have anticipated was Trump’s influence on American society being so strong, it would thoroughly infest the Republican Party by mid-2020. Make no mistake Biden won in 2020 primarily because most of the country wanted change and understood the country would not have been able to handle four more years of Trump. Biden did his job and America a huge favor of ending the pure insanity and disregard for common decency Trump’s presidency had become by mid-2020.

Literally ANYONE could have EASILY beatenTrump in 2020. Probably even Hillary Clinton if she ran that year. Bernie Sanders dropped out early on in 2020 largely because he knew Biden was a more viable candidate to take on Trump. The other reason he dropped out earlier was he wanted to avoid a repeat of what went down in 2016. Sanders would later announce he would not run for president again because of his age, saying in part the old guard needs to make way for younger voices.

 

Then the events of 1/6/2021 happened. It’s one of those instances where two people will see the exact same thing and each person interpret the same event differently. While most of the country saw it as the attack on the heart of Democracy itself it truly was, a third of Americans saw it as trying to “take their country back”.

Let’s be clear about one thing: The only reason the Trump-led coup on 1/6/2021 failed was because people in key positions of power refused to go along with it.

For example. Thanks to the 1/6 Hearings we now know Trump had every intention of joining the mob that sacked the U.S. Capitol. The only reason he didn’t was because his Secret Service security detail forcefully took him back to the White House. This is to say nothing of the Fake Electors Scheme failing because state Republican officials refused to do it.

Times have changed. The GOP has been making adjustments since then to install sycophants at the state level who will simply follow orders when the time comes. This is to say nothing of Far Right personalities having ready lists of people to install should Trump get back in power.

On that note. A lot was made out of Trump dismissing most of his staff in the first year and a half of his presidency. It was explained to the media as Trump being more efficient with less people but the real reason was Trump only wanted people who were loyal to him first and foremost. Everyone else was gradually let go or pushed out. Those preparations are being made in advance as we speak for if Trump gets back in the White House.

 

I actually had to revise the last two sections a few times because mathmatically and politically speaking, Trump does not have the votes to get back in the White House. That is a fact. About 45 Million to 50 Million people will for sure vote for Trump in November. At least 80 Million people will for sure vote for Biden. By default, Biden will win by an even bigger margin than he did in 2020. That is a fact.

Trump is not expected to WIN in 2024 but he was expected to RUN. It’s becoming much clearer the anarchists, White Nationalists and Christian Nationalists working from the shadows are simply using Trump to keep the media distracted. Given Trump’s now showing clear signs of cognitive decline, like I said on Xitter the other day one of the three things will likely happen sooner than later: Trump implodes in front of the media, Trump suffers a medical emergency in front of the media or a combination of both.

The irony shouldn’t be lost on anyone when it happens. Not if but WHEN. It’s not a secret Trump has been out of shape for years, eats poorly and is now clearly showing signs of cognitive decline. Before I continue, NO ONE is joking about that last part. The man seriously needs an intervention. Unfortunately for Trump, no one in his inner circle will dare suggest that to him. It’s as the saying goes, “Pride before the fall.”

I’ll speak more to that last part and how far gone the GOP clearly is in my next post. For the time being, I’ve ended my hiatus for this blog. I did mention a significant development with Trump would be one of the reasons I ended my hiatus. Trump barely gave me 22 days since that last post so you can thank him for this one I guess.

 

 

If you have enjoyed this post or other posts I have made on this blog, please consider making a monetary donation via PayPal. Whatever amount you can provide would be greatly appreciated.