Jordan is without question the U.S. and Israel’s oldest and strongest ally in the Middle East but King Abdullah II is not afraid to stand up to the U.S. if need be. Born in Jordan, Abdullah lived in the UK for a while and is fluent in English as well as several other languages. The death of his father saw him return home to claim the throne and he has gone a long way to both modernize his homeland and import a lot of Western values. He played an integral role in helping the U.S. get Egypt to join his nation as allies of Israel almost 20 years ago as well.
All the said, King Abdullah spoke for not just Jordan and Egypt but the entire Arab world last week when Israel dropped leaflets telling Palestinians in Gaza to move south toward toward Egypt’s boarder. He said if Israel pushes Palestinians out of Gaza, that will be considered an escalation of Israel’s conflict with Hamas.
Both Abdullah and Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi made it clear to both the U.S. and Israel they do not want any Palestinian refugees for two pretty understandable reasons:
- Their countries would probably implode from the strain if they even tried to take in any more refugees. Both countries have already taken in millions of refugees each, most of them from Palestine and Syria. They have both been begging their neighbors to share the load and take in some refugees for a while now.
- Gaza is Palestinian land and it is theirs by right. This is why Jordan and Egypt warned they will consider any attempt by Israel to displace Palestinians living there as an escalation. It’s the main reason why Egypt rarely opens their boarder crossing with Gaza. They don’t want Palestinians to leave their homeland.
All things considered, those conditions are more than fair. They don’t really care about Hamas and would be happy to see them wiped out. They’ll be watching Israel’s imminent ground invasion very closely. They know civilian casualties are unavoidable but they’ll be watching to see if Israel exercises enough restraint and doesn’t intentionally target the civilian population.
Biden went to Israel on Wednesday. During a joint press conference with Netanyahu, Biden pleaded with the Israeli Military to exercise restraint when they go into Gaza. The line that was impossible to ignore was when he referenced America’s reaction to 9/11. He said in part after that happened, America gave in to rage and made some mistakes it would pay for over the course of 20 years. I refer to Afghanistan specifically but I’m also talking about Iraq, Guantanamo and policies enacted domestically (The Patriot Act, etc.).
Before I continue, I’ll be blunt but read these next four sentances VERY carefully: On its own, Hamas is NOT an existential threat to Israel. Israel IS an existential threat to Hamas however. If Israel didn’t care about the political and military prices they’d likely have to pay, they could have EASILY wiped out Hamas and Palestine decades ago.
As a reminder, Israel does have its own nuclear arsenal. Israel has also been getting weapons, arms, tanks, planes and so on direct from the United States since its modern founding in 1948. The U.S. Military maintains a presence in the area primarily to act as a deterrent against Iran, Syria and Lebannon who have all made it clear want to wipe out Israel. They largely do not recognize Israel’s right to exist as a nation and view them as usurpers occupying Palestinian land.
Even many in countries that officially recognize Israel’s right to exist are angered by the Israeli Apartied in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank where Palestinians are largely treated like animals. I am not saying this excuses what Hamas did two weeks ago or other countries threatening Israel militarily but like Nathan Thrall tried to explain to Michael Cohen on a recent episode of Mea Culpa, most of the world only has a narrow perspective.
While Jordan, Egypt and other nearby countries do recognize Israel’s right to exist as a nation, more important to them is Palestinians’ well-being. I mentioned this in the previous article but Israel has been rapidly building new settlements into the West Bank and East Jerusalem for the last few decades now. Palestinians are being pushed out as a result. Again, I’m not saying what Hamas did was “justified”. I know a lot of closet antisemites are though.
You know who’s been screaming the loudest for the Israeli Military to exercise restraint ever since this all started two weeks ago? Israelis and Jews living abroad. This point was under reported but the music festival Hamas hit was organized by Jews and Palestinians. They were trying to build public support for a two-state solution. Hamas didn’t care. They killed everyone regardless of if they were Jew or Muslim.
The eyes of the world are on Israel because when World War III starts depends on how they deal with Hamas and Gaza. No one is saying civilian casualties will be 100% avoidable in Gaza–Hamas wants to ensure there are mass civilian casualties on that note–but no one wants to see what we saw during the last conflict about 10 years ago. There were confirmed cases of pregnant Palestinians being deliberately targeted and shot by Israeli snipers (“One shot, Two kills”). That is a war crime.
Speaking of. Biden was apparently warned by Amnesty International, UNICEF and the U.N. Secretary General–the last one is in Egypt right now to personally oversee the delivery of emergency supplies to Gaza from the Egyptian side of the boarder–his comment about backing Israel no matter what could implicate him and the U.S. in potential war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Israel during this conflict. That’s how serious things are now. As a reminder, Israel’s military firepower came from the U.S. so that would be true. It’s also true Biden begged the IDF to exercise restraint. Weather they will or not remains to be seen though.
Getting back to Jordan and Egpyt. If Israel can keep civilian casualties to a minimum, Egypt will feel better about sending more aid into Gaza and Jordan will feel better about telling Lebannon to back off. I also mentioned this in the previous article but Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries do host Hamas officials. Most of the Arab world was ready to turn on Hamas before the hospital bombing incident.
Everyone in the Middle East assumed Israel did it despite proof of otherwise and this is why we’re back to the drawing board. If the Israeli military can keep civilian casualties to a minimum, that could help quickly lower the temperature.
I want to end with this because it needs to be addressed. I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on Xitter in which some claim the IDF is going into Gaza with the belief all or most of the 200+ hostages are dead. Qatar brokered the release of two American hostages from Gaza early Sabbath morning local time. That was basically proof of life and also confirms more hostages are likely also still alive in Gaza.
I agree with those who’ve said Hamas wants something in return for releasing those two American hostages. Most likely they want Israel to stop its airstrikes on Gaza. They already said they will release all the hostages if Israel promises to stop its airstrikes. Meanwhile, they want to be free to keep firing rockets into Israel. If they were willing to not do that at least then maybe there’d be room for negotiation but no. They want Israel to give while they keep taking. Yet people wonder why they’re rightfully considered a terrorist organization.
Hamas proved to the world the only thing they care about is the wholesale slaughter of people who don’t share their values. Even their own people. Full stop. So, they need to be wiped out and likely will be sooner than later. Not just those in Gaza but likely those being sheltered by other countries.
Added 10/22/2023:
For decades, Jordan has been been the U.S.’ strongest Arab-majority ally in the Middle East. In the aftermath of the civilian death count in Gaza now passing 4,000, King Abdullah II is now demanding an immediate ceasefire from Israel. He took it a step further by repeating what the UN said about Biden’s declaration the U.S. will have Israel’s back no matter what: The U.S. will be considered an accessory to war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Israeli military on Gaza.
I mentioned this earlier but King Abdullah lived in the UK prior to becoming King of Jordan. He has a unique perspective to say the least. When he talks about foreign policy issues regarding Europe and the U.S. in particular, it means a lot more coming from him than others. He is largely regarded as a bridge between Western Nations and the Middle East.
That’s what makes his comments on the U.S. being complicit and and accessory to what Israel is doing in Gaza so such a big deal. I eluded to this earlier but Biden is clearly not willing to pay what’s likely to be a very high political cost in the Middle East Netanyahu is obviously trying to force the U.S. to pay for whatever the IDF does in Gaza. Mind you, Biden publicly said it for posterity but it had the intended effect in Israel.
The media largely said Biden “succeeded” in his trip to Israel. On the other hand they’re mostly saying Jordan, Egypt and Palestine cancelling their planned meeting with Biden in Jordan “was a mistake”. The media got it wrong on both counts. First, Biden’s comments clearly made things worse and is likely what provoked King Abdullah II to say what he said. Biden is working with Egypt’s president el-Sisi to get relief aid into Gaza by truck but what’s going in now is clearly not going to cut it.
Both el-Sisi and Abdullah are calling for the IDF to halt its planned ground invasion in favor of focusing on hostage negotiations with Qatar acting as a mediator. The fact that the ground invasion still has not happened yet tells me the IDF has likely found proof or evidence most of the hostages are in fact alive. There was online chatter about a week back that allegedly indicated the IDF believed most or all of the hostages were dead. Clearly that was not true.
Biden has been clear about the fact Israel has the right the defend itself and though he hoped going in person would help discourage high civilian casualty numbers, at this rate it will top 5,000 by the end of the month. As a reminder, most of the civilians being killed are women and children. It’s a real bad look and is a big reason why Biden is pushing to get a humanitarian corridor from Egypt to Gaza opened up.
No one is disputing the fact Hamas views the high civilian casualty rate as a positive for them. People across the Middle East have been enflamed, their anger directed at Israel and the U.S. Abdullah and el-Sisi also know this and it’s why they want Israel to stop its airstrikes on Gaza. Are they aware that will not stop Hamas from firing rockets into Israel? Yes but given Lebannon and Iran are clearly on the move, Jordan and Egypt are clearly worried they will not be able to muster local support for taking on Lebannon and Iran as well as expelling Hamas’ influence from their own countries.
Everyone involved directly and indirectly is WELL aware this isn’t just a kinetic war but an information war and on that note. As of Monday morning, the State Department announced they expect the conflict to escalate. It’s looking like Lebannon is preparing to open a second front along its boarder with Israel and it may be the real reason the IDF is delaying its long announced ground incursion into Gaza. Unlike Hamas, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group based in Lebannon is much better equipped and is battle-hardened from the Syrian Civil War. Israel knows if Hezbollah is gonna make their move, it will likely be shortly after the military forces they amassed outside of Gaza go in.
Israel has been moving military assets to the Northern Boarder and has so far evacuated over 20,000 people from boarder towns. The IDF is prepared to fight a 2-front war if need be and this is why Jordan acting as a hard check is so important for regional stability. Worst case scenario–and I do think this is the option King Abdullah is considering–Jordan decides to remove itself from the ongoing mediations and be neutral.
What Jordan does, Egypt will likely do too and you can imagine the chain reaction that would set off. Lebannon, Syria and Iran would see that as a green light to escalate things with Israel. That’s when things get REAL dangerous. I’ll stop there but what is clear is regardless of how this ends, Netanyahu’s political career is likely going to end once the fighting ends weather he wants it to or not. I’m sure he know that too. It’ll be a question of how much damage he’ll do on his way down and out at this point.
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