All I can really say is at this point, it feels like the inevitable is being delayed.
NATO fought hard and largely succeeded in keeping China and Belarus out of Ukraine in the early days of that conflict. It helped China didn’t want to openly commit to Ukraine militarily and Belarusian opposition groups succeeded to keeping their military from being gang-pressed into the conflict despite Putin’s best efforts.
The Israel-Hamas Conflict is a different story. Faith leaders from the three religions represented in the region–Christianity, Judaism and Islam–have all separately said for years if the conflict between Israel and Palestine ever expanded beyond those territories, we’ve entered World War III.
On Wednesday, the Lebanese and Iranian governments claimed the outrage and anger towards Israel and the U.S. in their countries so great, they would not be able to stop violent clashes. That’s funny coming fron Iran given they violently and swiftly suppressed peaceful protests last year. No, they WANT war with Israel. There is political capital for that domestically as well as in Lebannon and Syria.
That brings me to the emerging BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an alliance of countries that on paper claims to want to build a world order that doesn’t involve the United States and Western Europe. The member countries insist their alliance is based on mutual economic, trade and technological prosperity and is not a military alliance. I intentionally phrased it that way given Brazil and South Africa, which are both longtime allies of the U.S. and are also Democracies are core members of BRICS.
Personally, I do think India and South Africa in particular are trying to have it both ways. I would’ve said the same about Brazil before their leadership change last year. From what I’ve been able to find out online, new president of Brazil wants out of BRICS and wants to normalize their country’s relations with the U.S. as well.
India’s Narendra Modi has working to position himself as a political buffer between the U.S. and Europe opposite Russia, China and Southeast Asia in particular. So, he has a vested political interest in being a part of BRICS to make india look as neutral as possible on the global stage. I’m sure he also got assurances India’s longtime rival Pakistan would not be admitted as well.
BRICS recently expanded and added six new countries to their alliance, five of them in the Middle East: Iran, United Arab Emerates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina. They probably wanted Venezuela but the country being a failed state is likely why they settled with Argentina. Argentina’s addition also adds credability to the belief Brazil is expected to leave BRICS as well.
Ethiopia being admitted to BRICS is pretty weird given Russia’s war against Ukraine stopped critical grain imports from going to Ethiopia. My guess is some kind of backroom deal was struck for that to happen. It’s not really a secret while most Middle Eastern countries don’t want war with the U.S. and Europe, they want the U.S. and Europe out of their business. So, it makes the most sense for those countries to join BRICS and I’m sure more countries in the region will follow suit. I look at Oman, Yemen, Qatar, Algeria, Tunisia, Somalia and Syria in particular. I left out Turkey since it’s a NATO member nation on that note.
Since I already went there, here’s a few other countries BRICS might look to add to their ranks in the near future:
- North Korea
- Sudan
- Cuba
- Nigeria
- Indonesia
- Nicaragua
- Haiti
- Sierra Leone
- Myanmar
- Malaysia
With most of these countries, Russia and China will assert it will be about finding paths to prosperity that doesn’t involve the U.S. They would also want to expand their reach and ability to act as a check militarily against key U.S. allies near where all these countries are located. Most notably in the Pacific opposite Japan, South Korea and The Philippines.
Russia and China also have separate vested interests in plundering the African continent to finance their activities elsewhere. The political dysfunction in most African countries is largely why they’ve largely focused on propping up despots in exchange for money.
BRICS wants a presence as close to the U.S. as possible for surveilance purposes. Recruiting Nicaragua would allow Russia and China to have assets a stone’s throw away from the U.S. in plain sight. More so with the political instability going on in the U.S. right now.
Speaking of. At this point it might be safe to say Congress will not reopen in time to avoid a government shutdown next month. The Far Right in Congress and their allies need the government to stop. It’s the real reason why they quickly moved to vote to remove now former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. Cutting the a deal with the Democrats was merely the pretext.
America is coming across at the seams at all levels and it’s becoming even harder to ignore that. I don’t just mean politically but economically, spiritually, socially and structurally. Again, this is as intended but those within the U.S. and their foreign allies who want to see the American Democracy end.
It’s looking more and more likely armed conflict is coming within America sooner than later. As of this writing, President Biden plans to make a primetime address to America–and the world–to explain why aid to not just Israel but Ukraine needs to continue. Biden announced on his flight back from Israel he is going to request a $100 Billion Aid package. Most of it will go to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel though funding for a boarder wall–which the far right in the GOP demanded since 2018–is included. I’ll put it like this: I’ll be very shocked if it gets ANY GOP support in either house of Congress. I’ll be shocked if Progressive Dems support the package as-is.
Even if this plan to temporarily grant the temporary speaker additional power to reopen the House of Representatives works, Jim Jordan–an unapologetic election denier who is confirmed to have assisted in the planning of the Capitol attack on 1/6/2021–has indicated he is not giving up on trying to become Speaker of the House. Like I said before, the Far Right wants to break the government so they can rebuild it to their liking. A few media outlets are finally starting to say this on that note.
A few hours before Biden spoke from the Oval Office, the State Department issued an unprecedented global Travel Advisory for all Americans either currently abroad or planning to soon travel abroad. The Travel Advisory was issued the day after the hospital bombing incident in Gaza. This is in addition to the State Department telling Americans in Lebannon in particular to leave that country now.
It doesn’t get any clearer than that. People from the U.S. and Western Europe are soon going to get hunted down. Lebannon, Syria and Iran are all whipping up their people for a killing frenzy to say the least. U.S. Military forces in Iraq, Syria and off the coast of Israel have reportedly been targeted by foreign adversaries in the region. Clearly a regional conflict is unavoidable at this point. Iran in particular is now openly trying to provoke the U.S. Military.
The problem for America is like I said, not only will we likely need to soon commit militarily to the Middle East but we will also be dealing with violence primarily against Jews and Muslims in our own boarders. I’ve seen some of the rhetoric online myself it’s disgusting and frightening but not surprising. Those planning to butcher innocent people in America are likely deciding who and where in their area to hit right now. They don’t need to go in groups. One is enough.
I promise you, once images of dead Muslims in America start popping up on the news, that’s it. Every American or Westerner in the Middle East is fair game. They won’t care what losses they take. They will not accept anything less than the extermination of every westerner they see and the slaughter of everyone in Israel along with anyone who tries to stop them. Not saying everyone in the Middle East will do that but the governments of Iran, Lebannon and Syria in particular are riding on that outcome to justify pushing for it for decades.
…These are some really, REALLY dangerous times to say the least.
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