Yes, a failed state in South America with over 5 million refugees living in nearby countries and the biggest oil producer in the western hemisphere is legit making plans to invade neighboring Guyana for THEIR recently discovered oil deposits.
The Venezuelan government “suddenly” decided to revive a 125-year old territorial dispute from colonial times. That actually was settled over a century ago when Guyana was a British colony. In 2018, oil reserves were discovered in western Guyana as well as of the coast. Five years later, the Venezuelan government arbitrariliy decided it wants that oil and is stirring up nationalism to build domestic support for it.
Speaking to CBS News this week, Guyana’s president Ifraan Ali said he has asked the United Nations to mediate though Venezeuela refuses to recognize the UN Moderators. President Ali revealed while he is hoping this dispute can be resolved peacefully, he is preparing for an invasion from Venezuela. In the meantime, he is working ever diplomatic channel he can including both Cuba and the United States to keep South America peaceful.
This brings me back to the timing for all this. We already know for a fact Russia and Iran played a role in the timing of the attack that set off the current conflict between Israel and Hamas. Putin wanted the conflict because he knew it would force the U.S. and the international community to focus on that instead of Ukraine. The timing of the Israel-Hamas conflict really sucked for Ukraine in particular as they were already fading from U.S. news media who were moving on to other things.
All that said. If Venezuela invades invades Guyana, the U.S. will have to get involved militarily. The reason is because of the chain reaction Venezuela would set off if it invades Guyana. Most of South America is backing Guyana though Brazil would likely want to stay neutral. The Brazilian government has friendly relations with Venezuela and that’s why.
I know people in Panama, Mexico, Costa Rica, Argentina and Columbia who are have said to me if Venezuela invades Guyana, the Venezuelan refugees in their countries should be deported back to their homeland to make room for Guyanan refugees. Most of Latin America isn’t wasting any time publicly making it clear which nation they will support if Venezuela invades Guyana and not just moral support.
Most of Latin America is hosting a combined nearly 6 million Venezuelan refugees. They fled their homeland because despite leading the western hemisphere in oil production, the Venezuelan government has no idea what to do with the profits from that. They’re not using to to help the people. That much is obvious. Venezuela’s economy has collapsed crime is rampant. It’s not hard to understand why thousands of Venezuelans make the decision to leave their homeland every month. They don’t feel safe and they don’t see a future for themselves or their families in Venezuela.
The U.S. and other countries on both continents receiving Venezuelan Refugees have repeatedly sent envoys to Venezuela to try to address the root causes for people leaving. For whatever reason, the Venezuelan government doesn’t seem to care and is unwilling to make necessary changes. They’re already bleeding out thousands of refugees a month in peacetime. It’ll get MUCH worse if they try to invade Guyana. And everyone knows it.
As for why the U.S. would have to get involved militarily. The migrant crisis is the main reason why. While the severity has been overblown by the Republican Party for decades, it IS a fact Venuzuela has been bleeding out a few million refugees over the last 20 years now.
I mentioned earlier there are people in many Latin American and South American countries who view the Venezuelan refugees in their countries as a nuisance. If Venezuela invades Guyana, watch how fast all those countries act on political pressure to deport their Venezuelan refugees back to their home country. Most of those refugees sent back would likely be forcefully conscripted into the Venezuelan military. Basically, they’ll try to do the same thing Russia has been doing to try to replentish its military during the Ukraine conflict.
The difference is like I said before, Venezuela is a failed state and everyone in Latin America largely understands that fundamentally. The government will have a hard time forcefully conscripting its population. What’s most likely to happen is what’s been widely reported in Ukraine: Soldiers going rogue terrorizing local populations in Guyana including rape, looting, murder and other kinds of mayhem.
Unlike Russia, Venezuela will have a real difficult time bringing in mercenaries. That would require tons of money Venezuela would burn through VERY quickly. This is to say nothing of the U.S. and the UK likely likely setting up a naval blockade to keep Venezuela’s biggest and most powerful allies–Russia and China–from providing military aid. Cuba’s nearby but the U.S. already has a presence there.
All that said. This would be yet another distraction orchestrated by Russia and to a lesser extent China to keep the U.S.’ attention out of Ukraine. As things stand now, Russia’s Republican allies in Congess have succeeded in keeping more military aid from going to Ukraine. I’ll speak more to this in a separate post and the chain reaction Ukraine falling to Russia will set off.
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